Does economic recession reduce carbon emissions?
At the time of writing the UK (and global) economy is in a serious recession. There are suggestions that this will reduce GHG emissions and so, at least temporarily, help to mitigate climate change. Whilst this may indeed happen, the recent historical evidence casts doubt on there being a very strong link between emissions and the performance of our economy.
Looking for historical evidence for this, this graph compares UK CO2 emissions against a measure of the UK economy. The economic measure is called "Gross Domestic Product: chained volume measures: Seasonally adjusted" from the Office of National Statistics. Whilst it may not be the ideal measure (I am not an economist), it hopefully shows some indication of historic recessions.
- I notice that there are some dips in the CO2 emissions trend, for example following the negative recession spikes around 1974 and 1980. However, the links are not particularly striking.
- The big, negative recession spikes around 1991 is not matched by any notable reduction in CO2 emissions.
These historical data seems to cast doubt that the recession will mitigate our GHG emissions. It is important to realise that this is UK data, and the picture may be different for other countries. Since the 1970's we have had access to North Sea oil and gas, which has been a cheap source of fossil fuels for us.
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![Graph of UK carbon dioxide emissions data (from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre [CDIAC]) overlaid with UK Gross Domestic Product) ../env_images/tn_env_graph_emissions vs GDP.jpg](../env_images/tn_env_graph_emissions vs GDP.jpg)
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