Intro  |  About Climate Change  |  Consequences  |  Emissions Targets  |  Personal Action  |  Political Action

Cumulative effect on emissions

Greenhouse gases (especially CO₂) build up in the atmosphere. It is therefore important to consider the cumulative effects of emission trends. Having strong targets in the near future (e.g. the 42% by 2020 target) will make a significant difference on what we will have emitted by the end of the century.

This graph shows UK emissions target lines (in mega tonnes CO₂ per year) that have been developed in the previous pages.

This next graph shows the same UK emission target lines, in giga tonnes CO₂ , accumulated in the atmosphere over time.

• If we follow the trend to meet the Kyoto target the UK will have emitted 75 billion tonnes of CO₂ since the industrial revolution (1800).
• You can see that we will need further emission reduction targets after 2050.
• Notice that the sharper emissions reductions to meet the "Intended cut" line make a significant difference in resulting cumulative CO₂ emissions by 2080. Whilst both Agreed and Intended cut lines meet the 80% reduction by 2050 target, there is a 2 billion tonne difference in the amount of CO₂ emitted by the end of the century.
• Assuming the rest of the world follows Contraction & Convergence targets to match the UK, we would see global mean temperature rise by <1.9șC (see Global temperature change page), if we follow the "Intended cut" emission target line, or >2.0șC rise if we follow the "Agreed cut" line. Whilst this may sound like a small difference, it is important to consider that only fractions of a degree separate the different emission scenarios, for example: the Low emission scenario would be about 1.7șC rise, and the Medium emission scenario would be about 2.6șC rise.