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Daily Minimum Temperature Changes in March

There is a general trend of increase in minimum temperature. Under the high scenario, this tends to increase after the 2050s. Probability bands are very similar up to the 2050s but the higher scenarios get wider and flatter after this. There is less variation than for the maximum temperatures. Spatially, little variation can be seen in minimum temperatures across all of England, for either scenario. March 2080 temperature curves are very slightly wider than for the March-May Spring season, hence the change in temperature of the coldest night is likely to be slightly higher; there is not a lot of difference between the scenarios suggesting central estimates of approx 1.5șC warmer nights in either case.

Under the Low emission scenario, there is a 67% chance that average daily maximum temperatures for March:

• By the 2050s, will be between 2.5șC and 4.3șC. This would be between 0.6șC and 2.4șC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
• By the 2080s, will be between 2.9șC and 5.0șC. This would be between 1.0șC and 3.2șC warmer than they were in the 1970s.

Under the High emission scenario, there is a 67% chance that average daily maximum temperatures for March:

• By the 2050s, will be between 2.9șC and 5.0șC. This would be between 1.0șC and 3.1șC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
• By the 2080s, will be between 3.5șC and 6.7șC. This would be between 1.6șC and 4.8șC warmer than they were in the 1970s.

Probability range

Time and space

Coldest night

Estimates for the highest and lowest temperatures are only available at a seasonal level. It is therefore sensible to check how the seasonal averages compare to the monthly averages.

Please notice that all of the maps and graphs are copyright © UK Climate Projections 2009