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Daily Maximum Temperature Changes in March

There is a general trend of increase in day max temperature. Under the high scenario, this tends to accelerate after the 2040s. Probability bands get wider and flatter through time, more so for the high scenario; and all are skewed such that there are significantly higher temperatures beyond the high end of our chosen 67% band (for example averages could be reach over 18șC by 2080 under high emissions). Spatially, you can see that temperatures tend to increase towards the south-east corner of the country. March 2080 temperature curves are narrower than for the March-May Spring season, hence the change in temperature of the hottest day is likely to be a little lower, suggesting central estimates of: approx 2șC warmer under the low scenario and approx 3șC under the high scenario.

Under the Low emission scenario, there is a 67% chance that average daily maximum temperatures for March:

• By the 2050s, will be between 10.9șC and 12.7șC. This would be between 1.0șC and 2.9șC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
• By the 2080s, will be between 11.4șC and 13.6șC. This would be between 1.5șC and 3.7șC warmer than they were in the 1970s.

Under the High emission scenario, there is a 67% chance that average daily maximum temperatures for March:

• By the 2050s, will be between 11.3șC and 13.4șC. This would be between 1.5șC and 3.6șC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
• By the 2080s, will be between 12.0șC and 15.3șC. This would be between 2.2șC and 5.5șC warmer than they were in the 1970s.

Probability range

Time and space

Hottest day

Estimates for the highest and lowest temperatures are only available at a seasonal level. It is therefore sensible to check how the seasonal averages compare to the monthly averages.

Please notice that all of the maps and graphs are copyright © UK Climate Projections 2009