Daily Minimum Temperature Changes in August
Similar to the maximums, average minimum temperatures increase through time: but under the low scenario, there is a noticeable slowing after about the 2040s; and, under the high scenario, and they accelerate after about the same period. By the 2080s, the probability band for the high scenario is much wider and flatter than the low. Averages for night temperatures could reach over 20șC under the high scenario. Spatially, you can see that temperatures increase towards the south-east of England. August 2080 temperature curves are very slightly wider than for the June-August Summer season but they are skewed more towards lower temperature changes. The change in temperature of the coldest night is likely to be approximately: approx 1.5șC warmer under the low scenario and approx 2.5șC under the high scenario.
Under the Low emission scenario, there is a 67% chance that average daily minimum temperatures for August:
- By the 2050s, will be between 12.2șC and 14.6șC. This would be between 1.2șC and 3.6șC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
- By the 2080s, will be between 12.3șC and 15.4șC. This would be between 1.3șC and 4.3șC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
Under the High emission scenario, there is a 67% chance that average daily minimum temperatures for August:
- By the 2050s, will be between 12.5șC and 15.4șC. This would be between 1.5șC and 4.4șC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
- By the 2080s, will be between 13.4șC and 18.1șC. This would be between 2.4șC and 7.1șC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
Probability range
August Daily Minimum temperatures in the 2050s
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August Daily Minimum temperatures in the 2080s
Time and space
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| Daily Minimum temperature for August through time under the Low emissions scenario | Daily Minimum temperature for August through time under the High emissions scenario |
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| Map of daily Minimum temperature for August, in the 2080s, under the Low emissions scenario (at 50% probability) | Map of daily Minimum temperature for August, in the 2080s, under the High emissions scenario (at 50% probability) |
Coldest night
Estimates for the highest and lowest temperatures are only available at a seasonal level. It is therefore sensible to check how the seasonal averages compare to the monthly averages.
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