Daily Maximum Temperature Changes in August
Temperatures increase through time but under the low scenario, there is a noticeable slowing after about the 2040s; however there is a marked acceleration after about the same period, under the high scenario. Probability bands in the 2050s are fairly similar in profile for all emission scenarios. By the 2080s there has been a significant move in the higher scenarios, which are wider and flatter. Significantly higher temperatures lie beyond the high end of our chosen 67% band (for example averages could be reach over 34șC by 2080 under high emissions). Spatially, you can see that temperatures tend to increase towards a peak approximately over London. The August 2080 temperature curves are of similar width to the June-August Summer season but they are skewed more towards lower temperatures, hence the change in central estimates for temperature of the hottest day is likely to be up to a degree lower at: approx 1.5șC warmer under the low scenario and approx 3șC under the high scenario. Notice that in either scenario, average hottest day temperatures could be over 10șC higher than the 1970s.
Under the Low emission scenario, there is a 67% chance that average daily maximum temperatures for August:
- By the 2050s, will be between 22.5șC and 26.1șC. This would be between 1.3șC and 4.9șC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
- By the 2080s, will be between 22.8șC and 26.9șC. This would be between 1.6șC and 5.7șC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
Under the High emission scenario, there is a 67% chance that average daily maximum temperatures for August:
- By the 2050s, will be between 23.1șC and 26.9șC. This would be between 1.8șC and 5.6șC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
- By the 2080s, will be between 24.1șC and 30.2șC. This would be between 2.9șC and 9.0șC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
Probability range
August Daily Maximum temperatures in the 2050s
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August Daily Maximum temperatures in the 2080s
Time and space
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| Daily maximum temperature for August through time under the Low emissions scenario | Daily maximum temperature for August through time under the High emissions scenario |
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| Map of daily maximum temperature for August, in the 2080s, under the Low emissions scenario (at 50% probability) | Map of daily maximum temperature for August, in the 2080s, under the High emissions scenario (at 50% probability) |
Hottest day
Estimates for the highest and lowest temperatures are only available at a seasonal level. It is therefore sensible to check how the seasonal averages compare to the monthly averages.
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